Absences make for wide open Wells Fargo Champ. betting market | Going For The Green | Golf Channel [Video]

0:01 | welcome to going for the green I’m Brad

0:03 | Thomas here with Denny Carter and we’re

0:04 | going to lay out our Best Bets and plays

0:07 | for the Wells Fargo Championship played

0:09 | at Quail Hollow but before we get

0:11 | anything we have to talk about the two

0:13 | bombs dropped on us number one Scotty

0:16 | Sher is not in the field awaiting the

0:17 | arrival of his first child and ludvic

0:20 | oberg is out due to a knee injury and I

0:23 | will say this Denny I’m pressed because

0:25 | I was gonna single bullet ludvic tell me

0:29 | how this affects pricing and roster ship

0:31 | ownership big time look first of all I

0:33 | hope that Scotty sheffer’s wife

0:35 | eventually has this baby so that he can

0:37 | he can get on with the season and and

0:39 | and credit to him for staying home and

0:40 | and uh and you know looking out for

0:42 | being on baby watch but uh yeah oberg

0:44 | and sheffler being out means that roster

0:46 | ship for DraftKings tournaments is going

0:48 | to be uh much more spread out much more

0:51 | even especially among the top 10 or 12

0:54 | guys in the field so just you know kind

0:57 | of uh grapple with that before you make

0:59 | your final call

1:00 | for entries this week uh you know guy

1:03 | like Rory is going to see much more

1:05 | roster ship now that those two are gone

1:07 | um but you know guys I’m going to

1:09 | mention a couple guys in a second uh

1:12 | will not soak up that roster ship

1:14 | because of the pricing here yeah that

1:17 | makes a ton of sense and from the

1:19 | betting perspective we’ve seen the

1:20 | pricing changes but my favorite thing is

1:23 | when one of the favorites um kind of

1:25 | withdrawals or they eject themselves is

1:28 | when the pricing is stale so just make

1:30 | sure you look around for some stale

1:32 | numbers um for me

1:34 | personally I was kind of confused right

1:37 | I didn’t know how I wanted to attack

1:38 | this because I thought this course set

1:40 | up really nice for oberg it was a very

1:42 | good spot and I I believe he was around

1:43 | 12 to 13 to1 which was a fantastic

1:46 | number for probably the second best

1:48 | golfer in the world and I say that with

1:50 | caution because obviously he doesn’t

1:51 | have the wins to back it up but the way

1:53 | he’s playing the way he challenged

1:55 | Scotty on Sunday at Augusta he

1:58 | absolutely was but I want get straight

2:00 | into my first pick my favorite that I’m

2:03 | attacking and that’s Xander schafle I’m

2:06 | going to take him top 10 the price is

2:08 | around plus 105 plus 110 plus 130

2:11 | depending on where you look make sure

2:12 | you look at a market that pays out ties

2:16 | in full it’s important to say that

2:17 | because it’s only a 6069 man field which

2:20 | means there’s not going to be a lot of

2:22 | room for ties to not pay you what that

2:26 | means is we want him to finish at the

2:28 | top 10 it doesn’t matter if he’s T10 or

2:30 | he’s first sander shafley is horse for

2:34 | course and why I say that is because

2:36 | quill Hollow is difficult there’s a lot

2:38 | of holes here that play over par so you

2:40 | want a guy who just is very great

2:43 | allaround but also a great ball Striker

2:44 | and Xander Schley is is exactly that

2:47 | Denny I don’t know if I can get exactly

2:49 | behind his 9 to1 outright price but I

2:51 | did do some funky stuff and I parlayed

2:53 | him a couple times with some soccer

2:54 | lines that I like but I’d probably price

2:57 | him fairly around 11 to1 but obviously

2:59 | with with oberg uh withdrawing that

3:02 | pricing changes for sure look Xander’s

3:04 | not racking up the winds but he’s

3:06 | tearing the cover off the ball weekend a

3:08 | week out so we like that okay so you

3:12 | have a guy that you like that at 30 to

3:15 | one you could honestly convince me on an

3:17 | outright bet tell me what you love about

3:19 | Hideki matama yeah I mean look uh some

3:22 | things I’m looking at this week are you

3:24 | know Strokes gained around the green I’m

3:26 | looking at long iron play and I’m

3:28 | looking at distance off the tea okay I

3:31 | don’t particularly love when a course

3:32 | demands distance off the tea I feel like

3:35 | that sort of waters down the process of

3:37 | finding a good a good player uh you know

3:39 | to use in draft on DraftKings

3:40 | tournaments but uh so be it it is what

3:43 | it is uh but matama checks all those

3:45 | boxes he’s been borderline Elite in Long

3:47 | iron play that means uh 175 yards and

3:50 | above uh especially over 200 he’s been

3:52 | really good his past three finishes

3:54 | sixth seventh and then he tied for 38th

3:57 | uh at the Masters I do think at 9800

4:00 | we’re going to see a lot of the roster

4:03 | ship in that area go to cam young who

4:05 | also checks a lot of boxes here and go

4:07 | to uh theala who I I think you know is a

4:11 | great play but I’m I’m a little hesitant

4:13 | on embracing him going all in on theala

4:16 | because I think that he will be very

4:17 | highly rostered so you get off the high

4:19 | roster ship a little bit here and a guy

4:22 | who really fits this course well and

4:24 | matama yeah matama fits this course well

4:26 | and what’s funny to note about matama is

4:28 | normally when he’s priced like around

4:30 | the 18 to 25 uh price range in the

4:33 | outright Market he doesn’t win he’s

4:35 | normally the guy who’s in the 30s 40s

4:37 | and 50s and he wins the tournament right

4:40 | I’m gonna go with Stephen joerger back

4:43 | to Jagger bomb and you remember how I

4:46 | said make sure you play on a book that

4:48 | pays ties in full yes well you would

4:51 | have lost money last week if you tailed

4:54 | him top 20 at another book that pays out

4:57 | Dead Heat lost money that means if you

5:00 | have placed a $20 bet you probably would

5:01 | have returned five bucks even though he

5:03 | finished T20 but I’m okay with his poor

5:07 | performance at CJ cup because of

5:10 | everything that he did well that I

5:12 | wanted him to ball striking he gained

5:14 | over three Strokes ball striking off the

5:16 | te gained over five Strokes off the te

5:18 | yes the putter wasn’t great and yes that

5:19 | makes that three events in a row where

5:21 | he lost Strokes on approach but the

5:23 | funny thing about Strokes gained

5:24 | approach is when you’re gaining so many

5:26 | strokes off the te it makes your numbers

5:29 | kind of skewed if you have a subpar

5:32 | approach outing and the putting I could

5:34 | forgive the putting at a course like

5:36 | this because there’s going to be a lot

5:37 | of long

5:38 | irons there’s gonna be a lot of long

5:40 | putts long irons equal long putts

5:42 | because you’re not going to be hitting

5:43 | as many close on approach but this dude

5:45 | has been an absolute stone cone killer

5:47 | and I think at my God 60 to1 he has a

5:50 | better chance to win than a lot of dudes

5:52 | who are sitting at 25 to1 Justin Thomas

5:55 | Jordan spe guys whose game is just

5:57 | falling off a cliff that’s right yeah uh

6:00 | y uh Steph joerger 301 off the te over

6:03 | the past 20 rounds only Taylor pendrith

6:06 | is longer in this field so he’s a bomber

6:08 | and we like bombers on this course yeah

6:10 | man um speaking of another guy who’s

6:13 | pretty good off the tea and they have

6:15 | excelled a lot with their long irons

6:17 | that’s AA batia I’m still reving in him

6:20 | cashing me that 6066 to1 ticket a few

6:23 | weeks ago uh what do you like about him

6:25 | yeah hopefully he doesn’t uh you know

6:27 | kind of Fall Away on Sunday like he did

6:30 | that day and and then came through for

6:32 | you which I’m I’m still happy for you by

6:33 | the way BR it was great great call but

6:35 | listen over the past 16 rounds only

6:37 | Xander chafl is ahead of batia in total

6:40 | Strokes gained okay in this in this

6:42 | field it’s only Xander we talked about

6:43 | how good Xander’s been batia has been

6:45 | right there over that same stretch batia

6:47 | leads all players in ball striking so

6:51 | look the short game not really there the

6:52 | putting ah I’m a little nervous okay I I

6:55 | get it it’s I I don’t know if he’s you

6:58 | know in It to Win It but for DraftKings

7:00 | purposes I think he’s very fairly priced

7:03 | I think it would be some something of a

7:04 | stunner if he did not make the cut here

7:07 | because his ball striking has been so on

7:08 | point we just have to hope that our guy

7:10 | batia makes a few putts a few putts this

7:13 | week and we’re in yeah let’s hope a guy

7:17 | um who is on the all name team Adam

7:21 | shank the most unfortunate name of a

7:23 | golfer I was shocked to see his price

7:26 | with how well he’s been doing um he’s

7:28 | sitting at 60 6 to one to win the

7:32 | tournament I can ignore his name I know

7:35 | I know you you don’t like the name for a

7:37 | golfer oh well look you have to give him

7:40 | credit I I I feel like you know he has

7:42 | overcome having the last name of shank

7:45 | to to be to become one of the world’s

7:47 | best golfers this is incredible this is

7:49 | a story no one’s talking about it’s like

7:50 | it’s like a kicker in the NFL his name

7:52 | was last name was B it okay literally is

7:55 | Chris ble it and if that guy went on to

7:58 | become the next Adam vetan it would have

7:59 | been incredible shank I I give him all

8:01 | the credit in the world he’s basically

8:03 | Tiger Woods because he overcame that

8:05 | last name go ahead could you imagine

8:07 | Adam shank sitting at like a Wake Forest

8:09 | tournament and and he hits a bad shot

8:10 | and every like shank shank between his

8:14 | head no but on a more serious note his

8:18 | game is is on the up and up uh ball

8:20 | striking number is phenomenal CJ cup

8:22 | gained six Strokes ball striking RBC

8:24 | Heritage four strokes three Strokes at

8:27 | the Masters another three at Valero

8:30 | if he can keep that around the green

8:31 | play in the green and means he gains

8:34 | stroke I think he’s going to be live to

8:35 | win at the Byron Nelson his t13 was

8:38 | probably a a Miss for him and what I

8:40 | mean by that is he was playing way

8:42 | better than not finishing inside the top

8:44 | 10 here when we play at a little bit

8:46 | more difficult course I think that’ll

8:48 | help him because he’s not one of the

8:49 | highest birdie or better gainers but

8:52 | he’s becoming an all around good golfer

8:54 | and I think that the win for him is a

8:56 | lot closer than people realize

8:58 | absolutely I I do I do like him in this

9:00 | field and for DFS purposes uh my guy

9:03 | shank is not going to be highly rostered

9:05 | I can guarantee you that I think the

9:07 | name’s probably offputting uh you’re

9:09 | going for the allame team and you’re

9:11 | going with Kirk kyama as your low price

9:15 | option look when I when I made my model

9:17 | this week and we all make our models I

9:19 | wasn’t expecting Kurt kyama to pop the

9:21 | way he did but let me tell you he did he

9:24 | popped as a top 10 play here I think you

9:26 | know we talk about bombers course he’s

9:29 | he’s in the field and ball striking over

9:30 | the past month 13th off the T sixth in

9:33 | driving distance at 298 yards a pop uh

9:36 | so he moves it out there you know with

9:38 | with the best of them um he’s also sixth

9:40 | best in this field in three- putt

9:42 | avoidance which I know that’s a little

9:44 | we’re getting a little bit in the weeds

9:45 | in the metric weeds I get that but it is

9:47 | it is important here we’re going to have

9:49 | a lot of long putts a lot of uh you know

9:52 | lengthy par putts and kyama over the

9:54 | past couple months has been really good

9:56 | in that area so it gives me some

9:58 | confidence that he can hang in there

9:59 | with the big boys and you know maybe

10:01 | post a top 10 top 12 something in that

10:03 | range yeah no uh like we say every week

10:06 | when you have guys at those prices you

10:07 | just need one of those sneaky top 10 top

10:10 | 15s even um before I let everyone go I

10:13 | do this came to my mind I played

10:15 | football with a guy whose last name was

10:17 | Burger offensive lineman and his

10:19 | nickname was double with cheese come on

10:22 | not even not even joking but Denny

10:25 | listen as always this was fun thank you

10:27 | to everyone who decided to check this

10:29 | out and I hope that we can help you out

10:31 | with your Wagers but make sure you check

10:32 | out

10:33 | nbcsports.com for additional help with

10:36 | your Wagers take care

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Absences make for wide open Wells Fargo Champ. betting market | Going For The Green | Golf Channel [Video]

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